Well, now that the clouds have parted and we can see at least a little of what is to come, what does this change in government mean to us?
On the plus side, we've got rid on Gordon and his NI rise. This has to be a plus.
Other than that? Nobody seems too sure at the moment what the Cleggeroon will do. Lots of pro-business talking, and lots of warnings of tough times to come. I'm still expecting huge increases in duty on alcohol - it's one of the few soft targets that they have left top aim at.
That is all the great crystal ball is saying for now. Look out for a budget of some description in the very near future, which should give us more info.
Until then it's continue to batten down the hatches as time are going to be tough. Whatever there is to come, you can bet that the prices that you have to charge are going to rise, and that the disposable income in people's pockets is going to shrink. Not a good combination in any climate, but with the current bleak outlook this is not going to be fun.
Monday, 17 May 2010
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
The General Election and all that.....
So, we stand on the brink of a new era, but what will it be.
Until yesterday a Lib/Con government of some sort seemed inevitable, but all of a sudden Labour drop a bombshell and it's all change. Brown admits that he needs to go (not that he intends to for months) and suddenly the LibDems are falling over themselves to talk to Labour. Am I the only one who smells Mandleson in this turn of events?
I'm still deeply sceptical that a Lib/Lab pact can work, they just don't appear to have enough votes. SNP will never support Labour for starters and without them they still can't get a majority, so why all the messing about? Seems to me that the Liberals are overplaying their hand, trying to squeeze the Tories for even more concessions than they've already been offered. This can only cause more chaos, more market uncertainty and overall damage the economy.
But what does it mean for our industry?
Don't think that we need a crystal ball here - pubs will still be the whipping boys of Westminster. Whoever forms the next government needs to raise billions of pounds somehow, so the old favorites: beer, cigarettes and petrol, will be clobbered again regardless of who is in No 10. The best that we can hope for really is that whatever the colour mix of the new regime is, Gordon Brown's NI rise will not go ahead. This would be a disaster for most independant publicans. We already have wages as one of the top 2 costs of running a business - the only thing that comes close is rent. Another rise in NI will put the actual cost of staff up to around £6.65 per hour at minimum wage! That is something we can well do without, both as an industry and a country, when you consider how many people the industry actually employs taxing pubs into nonexistence seems, at best, a shortsighted idea.
We may not be seen as laying golden eggs, but the long term consequences of destroying the pub industry would be akin to killing the golden goose.
Enough ranting for now. Let's see how it turns out in the next few days.
My Crystal Ball still shows a Lib/Con agreement of some kind, but a tiny part of me wants the Tories to just sit back and say "off you go then, form a 'rainbow alliance' and see how long it lasts". Unfortunately, humorous as that would be, I think the consequences for the economy would be too awful to contemplate.
Until yesterday a Lib/Con government of some sort seemed inevitable, but all of a sudden Labour drop a bombshell and it's all change. Brown admits that he needs to go (not that he intends to for months) and suddenly the LibDems are falling over themselves to talk to Labour. Am I the only one who smells Mandleson in this turn of events?
I'm still deeply sceptical that a Lib/Lab pact can work, they just don't appear to have enough votes. SNP will never support Labour for starters and without them they still can't get a majority, so why all the messing about? Seems to me that the Liberals are overplaying their hand, trying to squeeze the Tories for even more concessions than they've already been offered. This can only cause more chaos, more market uncertainty and overall damage the economy.
But what does it mean for our industry?
Don't think that we need a crystal ball here - pubs will still be the whipping boys of Westminster. Whoever forms the next government needs to raise billions of pounds somehow, so the old favorites: beer, cigarettes and petrol, will be clobbered again regardless of who is in No 10. The best that we can hope for really is that whatever the colour mix of the new regime is, Gordon Brown's NI rise will not go ahead. This would be a disaster for most independant publicans. We already have wages as one of the top 2 costs of running a business - the only thing that comes close is rent. Another rise in NI will put the actual cost of staff up to around £6.65 per hour at minimum wage! That is something we can well do without, both as an industry and a country, when you consider how many people the industry actually employs taxing pubs into nonexistence seems, at best, a shortsighted idea.
We may not be seen as laying golden eggs, but the long term consequences of destroying the pub industry would be akin to killing the golden goose.
Enough ranting for now. Let's see how it turns out in the next few days.
My Crystal Ball still shows a Lib/Con agreement of some kind, but a tiny part of me wants the Tories to just sit back and say "off you go then, form a 'rainbow alliance' and see how long it lasts". Unfortunately, humorous as that would be, I think the consequences for the economy would be too awful to contemplate.
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